Planning Assumptions
In developing the University's pandemic influenza preparedness and response plan, the University considered the following assumptions, based on those identified by the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and the NYC Office of Emergency Management:
- The first outbreaks will occur outside the U.S.
- A pandemic is likely to occur in waves, each lasting approximately 8 weeks and separated by many weeks of relative inactivity.
- During a period of contagion (a wave), there will be significant economic disruptions, including reduction in mass transit services, inventory shortages, shipment delays, reduced business activity. Critical supplies may not be available. International shipments and travel may be severely curtailed.
- Infection will occur in up to 30% of the population. An average of 20% of working adults will become ill.
- Vaccine will likely not be available for 6 to 9 months after the pandemic strain is detected. Before vaccine becomes available, the most effective containment strategy will be voluntary social distancing and self-shielding.
- Antiviral medications will be in limited supply and available for treatment only, not prophylaxis.
Assumptions specific to the University plan include:
- During a period of contagion and infection, the University will cease normal operations and will focus efforts on preserving University resources with particular emphasis on ensuring that freezers/refrigerators and laboratory animal welfare are maintained.
- Only those employees performing essential functions will be asked to report to work. All others will be directed not to report.
